The nation’s climate scientists are challenged to develop mechanisms and pathways for their knowledge to reach to local levels. Efforts have been made with the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and many national and state-wide reports. As the science is often pitched at global and regional levels, it does not speak to individuals concerned with local issues. Further confounding the matter is the widespread ventilation of the undergarments of the science through publicized emails and some scientific missteps. These sagas will recede in the rear view mirror as good science transcends. But what of the message? Is anyone listening?
Surveys demonstrate that interest in climate change is declining; it is not only dismissed as a threat, it is dismissed altogether. Naomi Oreskes studies the public’s perception of science and notes that people are increasingly driven by political dogma and are less willing to make the effort to learn about underlying scientific data. Their beliefs and actions are driven by unenlightened short term self-interest and a desire to maintain the status quo. She draws a metaphor wherein we have all been seated at a feast for many years, the table has groaned with abundance; suddenly a waiter appears with a bill. Whose bill is this? Has there been a mistake? Was the meal not free?
The world’s ecosystems are responding to climate change by shifting to higher altitudes and higher latitudes. Forests and reefs are challenged to adapt as they cannot easily move. Our western pine forests have lost tens of millions of acres to the warm winter loving pine bark beetles. Coral reefs may adapt to warming seas, but the acidification of the oceans caused by high CO2 levels might cause them to start dissolving before the end of this century.
Energy is another variable in this game: Cheap energy is not clean. Clean energy is neither cheap nor convenient. A glance at electrical generation finds huge inertia in cheap coal: China’s electricity is 80% from coal, India’s 58%, and ours 49%. Some say, all you need to do is capture the CO2-we proved that we could clean up the sulfur and the particulates. All it takes is desire and money. Accessible liquid oil resources are dwindling as demand rises. Some say the newly discovered natural gas resources in North America, make a sham of our long term energy mix projections and suggest we develop gas fired electricity generating plants to build a viable path around burning coal. In the longer term, note that we didn’t invent word processing by putting cap and trade limits on typewriters, and we didn’t leave the stone age because we ran out of stones. Perhaps fission or fuel cells will be in our future energy mix. Bright young scientists are hard at work on both scores.
Ecosystem changes, be it in reefs or forests are most believable to those who live close by. Distant changes are easy to ignore. In the Vail Valley we can hardly ignore the decline of our pine forests. We are witnessing an unprecedented trajectory of ecosystem disruption and biodiversity loss. In response we are fighting change with change. Our State Legislature is considering increasing the renewable energy standard for electricity generation to a remarkable 30% by 2020. Our largest utility, Excel, has announced plans to convert hundreds of megawatts of electrical generation from coal to cleaner fuels. Our largest airport, DIA, has a train system almost entirely powered by the sun. Each change promises our children a cleaner planet.
While many climate scientists question the need to take energy away from their research and allocate it to communication, the most eager to do so are those with grandchildren. They know that we hold in our hands strands of knowledge that are not being woven into cloth of understanding, and that consequently our actions and policies do not reflect hard-won insights. These grandparents have fallen in love with those who are to inherit the earth and are among the most energetic proponents of change.
Bob Raynolds is a Consulting Geologist and Research Associate at the Denver Museum of Nature & Science. Raynolds will be a speaker in the 2010 summer Energy + Environment series.